Date of Award
1-1-2000
Thesis Type
Masters
Document Type
Thesis
Divisions
Faculty of Business and Economics
Department
-
Institution
Universiti Malaya
Abstract
This paper attempts to develop an early warning system to predict currency crises that will allow managers not to be caught off-guard when a currency crisis hits the country. It is hoped that with an effective early warning system, managers will have adequate time to construct appropriate marketing and business strategies to counter the negative impact of a currency crisis. This research project examines the macroeconomic data generated by Bank Negara and the Ministry of Finance to see if correlations exist between macroeconomic measures and devaluation prospects as cited in the literature and whether these can be used in the construction of an early warning system predictor. Further a model of the early warning system is proposed. The proposed model has 3 components. The first component is lo track economic performance particularly current account sustainability. The second component is to track investor expectations and the third component is to track vulnerability to triggering events. It was found that the selected macroeconomic factors alone could not precisely indicate that the current account deficit was unsustainable and thereby leading to the probability of a crisis.
Additional Information
Dissertation (M.A) -- Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 2000
Recommended Citation
Vijitha, Sena Herath, "A study on the behaviour of selected macroeconomic indicators for Malaysia prior to the currency crisis in 1997" (2000). Student Works (2000-2009). 78.
https://knova.um.edu.my/student_works_2000s/78
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Initial
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