The GLM framework of the Lee-Carter model: A multi-country study
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
2-17-2022
Abstract
The Lee-Carter model is a well-known model in modeling mortality. We aim to compare three probability models (Poisson, negative binomial and binomial) based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of the Lee-Carter model. These models are applied to mortality data for 10 selected countries (Japan, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, Canada, Netherlands and Bulgaria) and the fit of these models is assessed using the deviance statistics and standardized residuals against fitted value plot. Among these three models, the negative binomial Lee-Carter model gave the best fit based on the deviance statistics and estimates of the log of deaths.
Keywords
Demography, Mortality, Generalized linear model, Lee-Carter model, Negative binomial
Divisions
MathematicalSciences
Funders
Universiti Malaya [GPF028B-2018]
Publication Title
Journal of Applied Statistics
Volume
49
Issue
3
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Publisher Location
2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OR14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND