The evaluation of a possible future Sino-Japanese armed conflict through the application of the ACEI-model

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2018

Abstract

There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model–ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model.

Keywords

Armed conflict simulation, PRC, Japan, Wartime economic modeling, Policy modeling, Economic desgrowth

Divisions

FacultyofEconomicsAdministration

Publication Title

Defence and Peace Economics

Volume

29

Issue

5

Publisher

Taylor & Francis

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