Modelling the Impact of Different Tuberculosis Control Interventions on the Prevalence of Tuberculosis in an Overcrowded Prison
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2018
Abstract
The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of tuberculosis (TB) treatment strategies interventions in an overcrowded and poorly ventilated prison with both high (5 months) and low (3 years) turnover of inmates against improved environmental conditions. We used a deterministic transmission model to simulate the effects of treatment of latent TB infection and active TB, or the combination of both treatment strategies. Without any intervention, the TB prevalence is estimated to increase to 8.8% for a prison with low turnover of inmates but modestly stabilize at 5.8% for high-turnover prisons in a 10-year period. Reducing overcrowding from 6 to 4 inmates per housing cell and increasing the ventilation rate from 2 to 12 air changes per hour combined with any treatment strategy would further reduce the TB prevalence to as low as 0.98% for a prison with low inmate turnover.
Keywords
inmates, LTBI, Malaysia, overcrowded prisons, tuberculosis
Divisions
FacultyofEconomicsAdministration,fac_med
Funders
University Malaya Research Grant [UMRG] RP004J-13ICT,Demographic Network Modeling of the Spread of Infectious Diseases and High Impact Research Grant HIR H-20001-E000092,Mitigation the Malaysia HIV Epidemic with a Comprehensive Research Programme
Publication Title
Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health
Volume
30
Issue
3
Publisher
SAGE Publications