Date of Award

1-1-2001

Thesis Type

PhD

Document Type

Thesis

Divisions

Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences

Department

Department of History

Institution

Universiti Malaya

Abstract

Major power relations in the Asia-Pacific region during the Cold War were undergirded by the bipolar mechanism, which essentially served as the operating principle of the international system for over four decades. The United States and the former Soviet Union were the primary actors, or the superpowers in the region in terms of their capabilities and interests. Although China and Japan along with some small powers in the region were significant actors in the configuration of power, the systemic equilibrium in the region basically depended on the foreign policy trends of the primary actors, or the way they interacted in the region. However, the bipolar system, despite all its weaknesses, was relatively stable. Superpower interactions were marked by caution as well as a high degree of restraint. However, the international system as such began to transform when the former Soviet Union began to review its great power role, both at the global and regional levels, since the ascendancy of the reformist Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985. The circle of systemic transformation was completed when the former Soviet Union disintegrated. The bipolar international system that existed since World War II was declared dead in 1991. The end of the Cold War heralded significant changes in the global power structure. A new configuration of power began to take shape. The distribution of power that is being shaped in the Asia-Pacific region in the post-Cold War era involves essentially the United States, Japan, China, and the Russian Federation. These four major actors are Asian powers in terms of their interests and capabilities in the Pacific Rim. Therefore, it is hypothesized in this study that stability and/or disturbances in the Asia-Pacific region depend largely on the foreign policy bahaviour of these powers in the region. Nevertheless, it is further hypothesized that identification of the foreign policy trends of the United States, Japan, China, and the Russian Federation is contingent upon the analysis of their foreign policy structures, or the elements that influence or persuade foreign policy makers to adopt a certain course of action or policy. Thus, it is argued that the United States, Japan, China, and Russia are powers vital or essential to the systemic equilibrium and regime formation in the post-Cold War Asia-Pacific. Hence, their foreign policy structures are analysed and discussed in this thesis at four levels: (1) power status or capabilities, both economic and strategic, of each power, (2) their respective national interests in the Asia-Pacific, (3) their internal institutions (domestic sources) such as the presidential apparatus, legislature, bureaucracy, political parties, pressure groups, public opinion, and so on, that are involved in foreign policy formulation, and (4) the external constraints or pressures on foreign policy makers of the respective powers. The theoretical framework for the analysis of major power foreign policy structures utilizes certain key concepts such as national interest, the nature of the post-Cold War international system, and the internal and external structures of foreign policy. The Cold War pattern of relations among the major powers is discussed with the aim of identifying the foreign policy trends of the four powers during that crucial era.

On the basis of the analysis of the foreign policy structures of the four powers, the study makes some important observations in the concluding chapter regarding the post-Cold War foreign policy trends in the Asia-Pacific region. This work draws the conclusion that the operating international order in the post-Cold War Asia-Pacific region is the preponderant balance of power system characterised by unipolarity i.e. US dominance. It is also concluded that Japan and China are aspiring world class powers that could someday pose a threat to American capabilities and interests ·in the region. In the case of Russia this study concludes that any analysis, projection or prediction of Russian foreign policy trends and behaviour is compounded by the ongoing internal political and economic malaise in that Eurasian land mass. Moreover, the dictates and pressures arising from unipolarity could impel Moscow and Beijing into some kind of strategic cooperation if not partnership. Thus, US-Japan security cooperation is likely to continue, to function as a counter-balance in the event that US relations with Russia and/or China deteriorate. Nevertheless, given the power differentials among the four major actors, relative stability in major power relations in the Asia-Pacific will continue to underscore regional security at least for the next quarter of a century. Finally, it is necessary to bear in mind that the principle of balance of power has been the operative mechanism of the international system in the twentieth century, and will also inform international relations in the 21 century. It provided a useful analytical framework for the study of power configurations before World War II, during the Cold War, and provides one for examining the distribution of power in the post-Cold War international system in the Asia-Pacific. Thus, the balance of power system offers a viable theoretical foundation for the analysis of the emerging post­-Cold War power structure in the Asia-Pacific region, shaped largely by the four actors: United States, Japan, China, and Russia.

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Additional Information

Thesis (PhD) -- Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Universiti Malaya, 2001.

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